Pebble Beach Market Update

The median single family home price in Pebble Beach this week is $2,595,000. As with other Monterey Peninsula markets, Pebble Beach is firmly in the Buyer's zone. The increase in market activity we saw in the early summer seems to have faded.

(Click on the graphic for a larger version)

We are approaching the traditionally slower part of the year but I had hoped that we might have gone a bit longer without the fall off in activity.

Inventory
Inventory remains elevated. Some of the short decline in inventory is a function of sellers taking their homes off the market as we approach the holiday season.

(Click on the graphic for a larger version)

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index is 12 off a bit from past weeks. The MAI is a function of the number of homes on the market, the number of days on market, price reductions or increases, and number of sales. A score below 30 indicates a buyer's market.

(Click on the graphic for a larger version)

Again, the upward movement of the Index we saw in the summer has faded away and the index is in the low ranges that we saw in late 2006.

This doesn't mean that homes aren't selling or won't sell, but it does indicate that buyers are expecting sellers that are willing to negotiate and selling prices that are off from the numbers seen in the last couple of years.

Quartiles

Pebble Beach has such a wide range of price variability it can sometimes be useful to divide the market into quartiles (each quartile is 25% of the homes). Keep in mind that Pebble is already a relatively small market so when we look at segments the number of homes in each group can get small. If the number of homes is too few, one sale can radically skew the data.

(Click on the graphic for a larger version)

Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that earlier in the year Pebble's most expensive quartile was performing as well or better than the other 3 quartiles. In the last few months, the less expensive homes have been "hotter" while the more expensive estates are are not moving at the rate they were.

(Click on the graphic for a larger version)

New Listings in Carmel

These are the new listings in Carmel in the last 30 days, sorted by list date. A few of these are well priced and will most likely sell in the next 30 days or so.

Scroll down to the next entry for market analysis.

Click on the table for a larger size version.

Market Profile, Pebble Beach (Sept 2007)

The median single family home price in Pebble Beach this week is $2,695,000.

There are over 110 homes on the Pebble Beach market. The average “days on market” is 195 days. Of the 110 homes, 20 percent (22) have been on the market for more than nine months with 13 of those on the market for more than a year.

Thirty percent of the homes on the market have undergone a price decrease from their original list price.

This is a telling statistic.

I believe that it is far better to price a home well from the start than run the risk of chasing the market. Sometimes price decreases are necessary, but for them to have an effect they have to be substantial.